Hispanics may soon become most populous Texas group
"Anglos may be minority in Victoria in 10 years"
June 23, 2004
Staff and Wire Report
HOUSTON - Hispanics are still on pace to outnumber whites in Texas by 2020 and they may even do it sooner, according to new state population estimates.

The Texas State Data Center's biennial population projection, released this week, is based on figures that show Hispanic growth continued in the financially troubled early 2000s while all other groups held steady.

Hispanic growth was more rapid from 2000 to 2002 because fewer people were coming to Texas while the economy was down but the Hispanic birth rate in the state was much higher than that of other groups, said Texas state demographer Steve Murdock.

"It accelerates the diversity of the population, where we become less than half Anglo," he said.

The traditional projection has non-Hispanic whites becoming less than half the populace next year, Hispanics edging past non-Hispanic whites in 2020 and Hispanics becoming a majority by 2035. If trends continue as they did from 2000 to 2002, non-Hispanic whites could lose the majority by this year. Hispanics could become the largest group by 2015 and a majority by 2030.

The center's projections for Victoria County show that as of now, non-Hispanic whites hold a majority but would lose that majority to Hispanics by 2025 under the most conservative estimates. However, factoring in current birth-rate cycles, Hispanics would become a majority in the county between 2010 and 2015. Indeed, if the same birth rate continues through 2040, the number of Hispanics in Victoria County would be three times that of non-Hispanic whites.

The center's projections show the non-Hispanic white population in Victoria steadily declining through 2040, while the black population increases only slightly.

The Texas State Data Center, at the University of Texas at San Antonio, is the state's official demographer. The center puts out a population projection for the state every two years, making estimations based on different growth scenarios.

All scenarios have the non-Hispanic white and black populations staying virtually flat while Hispanics mount huge gains along with "other," which comprises Asians, American Indians and any other group that doesn't fit into the three largest categories.

In fact, "other" will rival the black population by 2040 if growth were to continue as it has in the first part of this decade, Murdock said.

The trends are not expected to hold in the state's largest urban areas. Non-Hispanic whites will probably continue to outnumber Hispanics through 2040 in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, and Hispanics aren't on schedule to overtake whites in greater Houston until around 2035.

In terms of overall population, planners in the San Antonio region should anticipate the Austin area passing them in population as both approach 2 million around 2020, the data center's projections show.